Modest health care spending rise expected for 2013: report

June 12, 2012 By Steven Reinberg, HealthDay Reporter in Health

Modest health care spending rise expected for 2013: report

But it will outpace economic growth in years to come, government researchers say.

(HealthDay) -- Health care spending in the United States from 2011 to 2013 is expected to grow 4 percent, which is slightly more than the historic low of 3.8 percent in 2009, government officials said Tuesday.

According to the experts at the U.S. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), growth in by consumers remained sluggish in 2011 and that trend is expected to continue this year and next.

"We are expecting near-historic low growth in for the first three years of our projection period," Sean Keehan, a senior economist in the CMS Office of the Actuary and lead author of the report, said during an early-afternoon press conference.

But in 2014, when all the facets of the Affordable Care Act go into effect, spending is expected to increase significantly, he added. "This is especially the case for and clinician clinical services," Keehan said.

"In addition, by 2021, the number of uninsured people is expected to be reduced by nearly 30 million," Keehan noted.

By 2021, health care spending is expected to be 19.6 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP), up from 17.9 percent in 2010, according to the report published online June 12 and in the July print edition of .

Despite the slow rate in health spending growth seen during the and beyond, in 2014 health spending growth is expected to pick up and accelerate to 7.4 percent. This increase is largely due to the expansion of the Affordable Care Act, which will make medical care accessible for many more people, according to the report.

In addition, from 2011 through 2021, health care spending is expected to grow an average of 5.7 percent a year, which is 0.9 percent faster than the expected yearly increase in over that time.

And by 2021, federal, state and local government health care spending is expected to account for almost 50 percent of national health expenditures. That's up from 46 percent in 2011, with federal spending accounting for some two-thirds of the total government share, the researchers reported.

These rising costs are being driven by more baby boomers enrolling in Medicare and more people taking advantage of as its coverage is expanded under the Affordable Care Act. In addition, subsidizing people who buy their health care insurance through health insurance exchange plans will increase government's bottom line, the report authors noted.

"By the end of the projection period, higher income growth and the continuing shift of baby boomers into Medicare are expected to cause health spending to grow roughly 2 percentage points faster than overall economic growth, which is about the same differential experienced over the past 30 years," the study authors concluded.

Some factors that may make it necessary to update these projections include the slow growth of the economy and the upcoming U.S. Supreme Court ruling on the Act, which is expected this month.

"Like everyone else, we are waiting to see what the Supreme Court finds," Keehan said. "We don't have any plans to redo the projections immediately following the decision, but those plans could change depending on what the decision is."

More information: For more about health care spending, visit the Kaiser Family Foundation.

Journal reference: Health Affairs search and more info website

Copyright © 2012 HealthDay. All rights reserved.

not rated yet  

Rank not rated yet
Relevant PhysicsForums posts

More news stories

Calorie information in fast food restaurants used by 40 percent of 9-18 year olds when making food choices

A new study published online today (Thursday) in the Journal of Public Health has found that of young people who visited fast food or chain restaurants in the U.S. in 2010, girls and youth who were obese were more likely ...

Health created 4 hours ago | popularity not rated yet | comments 0

Systematic screening of med adherence will ID barriers

(HealthDay)—Implementation of systematic monitoring for medication adherence will allow for identification of barriers to adherence and tailoring of interventions, according to a viewpoint piece published ...

Health created 6 hours ago | popularity not rated yet | comments 0

More doctors, hospitals using electronic records

(AP)—The Obama administration says more doctors and hospitals are embracing technology as adoption of computerized medical records reaches a "tipping point" in America.

Health created 7 hours ago | popularity not rated yet | comments 0

Hospitals profit when patients develop bloodstream infections

Johns Hopkins researchers report that hospitals may be reaping enormous income for patients whose hospital stays are complicated by preventable bloodstream infections contracted in their intensive care units.

Health created 7 hours ago | popularity not rated yet | comments 0

Alleviating hunger in the US, it's a SNAP, researcher says

A University of Illinois researcher says that the cornerstone of our efforts to alleviate food insecurity should be to encourage more people to participate in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) "because ...

Health created 8 hours ago | popularity not rated yet | comments 0


Slowing the aging process—only with antibiotics

Swiss scientists reveal the mechanism responsible for aging hidden deep within mitochondria—and dramatically slow it down in worms by administering antibiotics to the young.

Researchers complete largest genetic sequencing study of human disease

Researchers from Queen Mary, University of London have led the largest sequencing study of human disease to date, investigating the genetic basis of six autoimmune diseases.

Brain can be trained in compassion, study shows

Until now, little was scientifically known about the human potential to cultivate compassion—the emotional state of caring for people who are suffering in a way that motivates altruistic behavior.

Having both migraines, depression may mean smaller brain

(HealthDay)—Migraines and depression can each cause a great deal of suffering, but new research indicates the combination of the two may be linked to something else entirely—a smaller brain.

Novel approach for influenza vaccination shows promise in early animal testing

A new approach for immunizing against influenza elicited a more potent immune response and broader protection than the currently licensed seasonal influenza vaccines when tested in mice and ferrets. The vaccine ...

Enzyme-activating antibodies revealed as marker for most severe form of rheumatoid arthritis

In a series of lab experiments designed to unravel the workings of a key enzyme widely considered a possible trigger of rheumatoid arthritis, researchers at Johns Hopkins have found that in the most severe ...