Model more accurately predicts lung cancer risk

Model more accurately predicts lung cancer risk
A new model to predict lung cancer risk is more accurate than previous criteria, according to a study published in the Feb. 21 issue of the New England Journal of Medicine.

(HealthDay)—A new model to predict lung cancer risk is more accurate than previous criteria, according to a study published in the Feb. 21 issue of the New England Journal of Medicine.

Martin C. Tammemagi, Ph.D., from Brock University in St. Catharines, Canada, and colleagues used data from 80,375 persons who had ever smoked from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial to develop and validate a lung cancer model. Data from the control group were used to develop the model and data from the intervention group were used to validate the model. The model was compared with screening criteria from the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST).

The researchers found that the area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve was 0.803 using the development data and 0.797 using the validation data. Compared with screening criteria developed from the NLST, the PLCO criteria had significantly higher sensitivity (83.0 versus 71.1 percent) and (4.0 versus 3.4 percent), with similar specificity (62.9 versus 62.7 percent). Overall, the PLCO criteria would miss 41.3 percent fewer lung cancers. Using NLST data, the protective effect of low-dose computed tomography screening did not differ based on PLCO lung cancer risk (P = 0.61 for interaction).

"In conclusion, the PLCOM2012 predicted the six-year risk of lung cancer with high accuracy and was more efficient at identifying persons for , as compared with the NLST criteria," Tammemagi and colleagues write.

More information: Full Text (subscription or payment may be required)

Related Stories

Longitudinal algorithm may detect ovarian cancer earlier

date Dec 21, 2012

(HealthDay)—Compared with a single-threshold (ST) rule, a parametric empirical Bayes (PEB) longitudinal screening algorithm can identify ovarian cancer earlier and at a lower concentration of CA125, according ...

Gene variant linked with reduced lung cancer risk

date Oct 08, 2012

A variant in a gene involved with inflammation and the immune response is linked with a decreased risk of lung cancer. That is the finding of an analysis published early online in Cancer, a peer-reviewed journal of the Am ...

Recommended for you

Spicy treatment the answer to aggressive cancer?

date Jul 03, 2015

It has been treasured by food lovers for thousands of years for its rich golden colour, peppery flavour and mustardy aroma…and now turmeric may also have a role in fighting cancer.

Cancer survivors who smoke perceive less risk from tobacco

date Jul 02, 2015

Cancer survivors who smoke report fewer negative opinions about smoking, have more barriers to quitting, and are around other smokers more often than survivors who had quit before or after their diagnosis, according to a ...

Melanoma mutation rewires cell metabolism

date Jul 02, 2015

A mutation found in most melanomas rewires cancer cells' metabolism, making them dependent on a ketogenesis enzyme, researchers at Winship Cancer Institute of Emory University have discovered.

User comments

Please sign in to add a comment. Registration is free, and takes less than a minute. Read more

Click here to reset your password.
Sign in to get notified via email when new comments are made.