Tool predicts incidence of psychosis
Scientists at the University of Cambridge have developed a tool capable of predicting the number of individuals expected to develop a first episode of psychotic disorder -disorders characterised by altered perceptions such as hallucinations or delusions – within regions of England and Wales.
The tool, known as www.PsyMaptic.org, works by taking into account various factors which are known to affect the incidence rate of these disorders, including sex, age, ethnicity and population density. Using the latest UK census data, it is able to forecast the most likely number of individuals in different regions who will experience new psychotic problems requiring mental health service intervention. It can also estimate the age and sex of these individuals, enabling mental health service commissioners and local authorities to better tailor resources to meet local need.
Currently, the commissioning of early intervention in psychosis services (EIS), which were established to help young people in England in the early stages of psychotic disorders, was based on a single, high estimate for all of England. As a result, the demand for EIS in some rural parts of England, may have been over-estimated, while in very urban areas the original estimates were still too low, leading to strain on urban EIS. PsyMaptic enables service planners to more accurately estimate the likely level of clinical need for services in different regions, based on local sociodemographic profiles.
Dr James Kirkbride from the University of Cambridge's Department of Psychiatry, who developed PsyMaptic, said: "Early intervention is one of the most effective ways to help young people with these types of mental health disorders. It is therefore critical that services receive adequate resources based on anticipated local demand. This tool can be used as part of a wider package of measures service commissioners should use to centre service provision around local need."
In order to test the accuracy of PsyMaptic, the researchers developed several different scenarios about the underlying psychosis risk in the general population. Under each scenario, they then compared the tool's predictions for the population living in East Anglia with the number of cases actually observed there. Their most accurate scenario (which took into account the age, sex, ethnicity and population density of the population) predicted 508 individuals would develop a new psychotic disorder over a 2.5 year period. In actuality, there were 522 observed cases of the disorders, validating the precision of PsyMaptic.
The researchers stress that forecasting the expected incidence of psychosis alone is insufficient to base service commissioning decisions upon. Actual pressure on mental health services, and the resources they require, is likely to be higher than predicted by PsyMaptic, because some people coming to the attention of psychosis services may need some form of mental health care, although they might not meet strict clinical criteria for severe mental illness.
Professor Peter Jones, Head of the Department of Psychiatry at the University of Cambridge, Director of the NIHR CLAHRC-CP and honorary consultant psychiatrist with the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Foundation Trust's early intervention service (www.cameo.nhs.uk) co-authored the research. He said: "Early intervention services for young people with a first episode of psychosis are highly cost-effective because people are more likely to recover, getting back to a fulfilling life and the opportunities ahead of any other young person. This tool not only provides a reliable estimate of the incidence of psychotic disorders, it also provides insights into the sociodemographic graphic characteristics of people who will become unwell; this helps tailor the health services around local need."
Paul Jenkins, Chief Executive of Rethink Mental Illness, said: "We're really pleased to see innovative work being done to support commissioning in this complex, but important area. There is overwhelming evidence for the effectiveness of early intervention services, but they don't always get the investment they need. We hope commissioners will use this tool to ensure that everyone in the early stages of psychosis gets access to this vital support."
Dr David Shiers, former joint lead of the National Early Intervention Development Programme, said: "Psymaptic is a welcomed and timely development. For patients and their families, particularly those living in inner city areas, this means they can now be more confident of receiving support from early intervention services resourced to meet levels of local need that previously may have been underestimated by service planners."
The results of the PsyMaptic research project, which was funded by the Wellcome Trust and the National Institute for Health Research, are published this week in the journal BMJ Open. The tool is made freely available online (www.psymaptic.org). PsyMaptic has been included with other indicators in the Joint Commissioning Panel for Mental Health's forthcoming guidance for commissioning of public mental health services.
The current incidence of psychotic disorders in England is around 32 new cases per 100,000 people, although this can be over three times higher for some groups in urban areas. The estimated total costs of mental health to the British health services and society was £105 billion in 2009/2010.
Provided by University of Cambridge
- Cambridge psychotic disorders study charts the past to anticipate the future Mar 23, 2012 | not rated yet | 0
- Schizophrenia linked to social inequality Dec 14, 2012 | not rated yet | 0
- Cognitive herapy over the phone as effective as face-to-face, new study finds Sep 28, 2012 | not rated yet | 0
- Early and network-oriented care may help adolescents at risk of developing psychosis May 14, 2009 | not rated yet | 0
- Study examines association between urban living and psychotic disorders Sep 06, 2010 | not rated yet | 0
- Motion perception revisited: High Phi effect challenges established motion perception assumptions Apr 23, 2013 | 3 / 5 (2) | 2
- Anything you can do I can do better: Neuromolecular foundations of the superiority illusion (Update) Apr 02, 2013 | 4.5 / 5 (11) | 5
- The visual system as economist: Neural resource allocation in visual adaptation Mar 30, 2013 | 5 / 5 (2) | 9
- Separate lives: Neuronal and organismal lifespans decoupled Mar 27, 2013 | 4.9 / 5 (8) | 0
- Sizing things up: The evolutionary neurobiology of scale invariance Feb 28, 2013 | 4.8 / 5 (10) | 14
Why is zone 1 in liver more prone to ischemic injury?
May 23, 2013 Hi, Is it because around central vein, there is only deoxygenated blood from the vein where as in the periphery there is hepatic artery. Also why...
How can there be villous adenoma in colon, if there are no villi there
May 22, 2013 As title suggest. Thanks :smile:
How can there be a term called "intestinal metaplasia" of stomach
May 21, 2013 Hello everyone, Ok Stomach's normal epithelium is simple columnar, now in intestinal type of adenocarcinoma of stomach it undergoes "intestinal...
Pressure-volume curve: Elastic Recoil Pressure don't make sense
May 18, 2013 From pressure-volume curve of the lung and chest wall (attached photo), I don't understand why would the elastic recoil pressure of the lung is...
If you became brain-dead, would you want them to pull the plug?
May 17, 2013 I'd want the rest of me to stay alive. Sure it's a lousy way to live but it beats being all-the-way dead. Maybe if I make it 20 years they'll...
MRI bill question
May 15, 2013 Dear PFers, The hospital gave us a $12k bill for one MRI (head with contrast). The people I talked to at the hospital tell me that they do not...
- More from Physics Forums - Medical Sciences
More news stories
(HealthDay)—We've all seen them: the surfers who race to the beach when a hurricane hits, the guy who decides to ride out the storm in his overmatched boat, the tornado chasers who fearlessly steer their ...
Psychology & Psychiatry 15 hours ago | not rated yet | 0
Women at a particular stage in their monthly menstrual cycle may be more vulnerable to some of the psychological side-effects associated with stressful experiences, according to a study from UCL.
Psychology & Psychiatry 16 hours ago | 3.7 / 5 (3) | 0 |
Ernie Pyle – an iconic war correspondent in World War II – reportedly said "There are no atheists in foxholes." A new joint study between two brothers at Cornell and Virginia Wesleyan found that only ...
Psychology & Psychiatry 18 hours ago | 2.5 / 5 (4) | 1
(Medical Xpress)—Research by Stanford scholar Emma Seppala at the Center for Compassion and Altruism Research and Education found that post-traumatic stress disorder decreased in veterans who participated ...
Psychology & Psychiatry 19 hours ago | 5 / 5 (1) | 0
(Medical Xpress)—Patients with diabetes who are depressed are much more likely to develop episodes of dangerously low blood sugars, or hypoglycemia, than are those who are not depressed, a new study has ...
Psychology & Psychiatry 20 hours ago | not rated yet | 0 |
(Medical Xpress)—A new study by researchers in the US has shown that an ancient virus can be modified to help in the fight against the simian immunodeficiency virus SIV, which is the equivalent in monkeys ...
19 hours ago | 5 / 5 (3) | 0 |
Two mutations central to the development of infantile myofibromatosis (IM)—a disorder characterized by multiple tumors involving the skin, bone, and soft tissue—may provide new therapeutic targets, according to researchers ...
13 hours ago | 3 / 5 (2) | 0 |
Biological processes are generally based on events at the molecular and cellular level. To understand what happens in the course of infections, diseases or normal bodily functions, scientists would need to ...
16 hours ago | 5 / 5 (4) | 0 |
How can healthy people who hear voices help schizophrenics? Finding the answer for this is at the centre of research conducted at the University of Bergen.
19 hours ago | 4 / 5 (2) | 2
(Medical Xpress)—The way Alzheimer's disease is portrayed by advocacy groups and the media is having undue influence on the euthanasia debate, according to a Deakin University nursing ethics professor.
20 hours ago | not rated yet | 2
Talking on a hands-free device while behind the wheel can lead to a sharp increase in errors that could imperil other drivers on the road, according to new research from the University of Alberta.
13 hours ago | not rated yet | 0