Rule combo accurately predicts organ failure in pancreatitis

June 8, 2012
Rule combo accurately predicts organ failure in pancreatitis
A series of 12 predictive rules that combines existing scoring systems in patients with acute pancreatitis improves the accuracy of predicting persistent organ failure, according to a study published in the June issue of Gastroenterology.

(HealthDay) -- A series of 12 predictive rules that combines existing scoring systems in patients with acute pancreatitis improves the accuracy of predicting persistent organ failure, according to a study published in the June issue of Gastroenterology.

Rawad Mounzer, M.D., from the University of Pittsburgh, and colleagues compared the accuracy of scoring systems created to predict which patients with pancreatitis will develop persistent organ failure (cardiovascular, pulmonary, and/or lasting 48 hours or more). Data were collected from a training cohort (256 patients) and a validation cohort (397 patients). On admission and 48 hours later, nine clinical scores were calculated. Twelve predictive rules which combined these scores were developed.

The researchers found that, in the training and validation cohorts, existing scoring systems showed modest accuracy (area under the curve [AUC] training cohort, 0.62 to 0.84; AUC validation cohort, 0.57 to 0.74), with the Glasgow score the best classifier at admission. In each set of patients, of creatinine and blood urea nitrogen provided similar levels of discrimination. In both cohorts, use of the 12 predictive rules increased accuracy (AUC training cohort, 0.92; AUC validation cohort, 0.84).

"The existing scoring systems seem to have reached their maximal efficacy in predicting persistent in ," the authors write. "Sophisticated combinations of predictive rules are more accurate but cumbersome to use, and therefore of limited clinical use."

Explore further: Glucose levels at admission predict death in pneumonia

More information: Abstract
Full Text (subscription or payment may be required)

Related Stories

Glucose levels at admission predict death in pneumonia

May 30, 2012
(HealthDay) -- For patients with community-acquired pneumonia without preexisting diabetes, serum glucose levels at admission are predictive of death at 28 and 90 days, according to a study published online May 29 in BMJ.

Ipilimumab active in advanced melanoma with brain mets

March 27, 2012
(HealthDay) -- For some patients with advanced melanoma and brain metastases, ipilimumab is active, according to the results of a phase 2 study published online March 27 in The Lancet Oncology.

Routine lab test data predicts progression to kidney failure for chronic kidney disease patients

April 11, 2011
A prediction model that included data on measures of several routinely obtained laboratory tests including blood levels of calcium, phosphate and albumin accurately predicted the short-term risk of kidney failure for patients ...

Researchers devise index for predicting long-term survival after liver re-transplantation

September 29, 2011
Liver re-transplantation generally has an inferior outcome compared with a patient's first transplant, due to the technical demands of the surgery and because patients are often sicker than they were at the time of their ...

Recommended for you

Creation of synthetic horsepox virus could lead to more effective smallpox vaccine

January 19, 2018
UAlberta researchers created a new synthetic virus that could lead to the development of a more effective vaccine against smallpox. The discovery demonstrates how techniques based on the use of synthetic DNA can be used to ...

Study ends debate over role of steroids in treating septic shock

January 19, 2018
The results from the largest ever study of septic shock could improve treatment for critically ill patients and save health systems worldwide hundreds of millions of dollars each year.

New approach could help curtail hospitalizations due to influenza infection

January 18, 2018
More than 700,000 Americans were hospitalized due to illnesses associated with the seasonal flu during the 2014-15 flu season, according to federal estimates. A radical new approach to vaccine development at UCLA may help ...

Zika virus damages placenta, which may explain malformed babies

January 18, 2018
Though the Zika virus is widely known for a recent outbreak that caused children to be born with microencephaly, or having a small head, and other malformations, scientists have struggled to explain how the virus affects ...

Certain flu virus mutations may compensate for fitness costs of other mutations

January 18, 2018
Seasonal flu viruses continually undergo mutations that help them evade the human immune system, but some of these mutations can reduce a virus's potency. According to new research published in PLOS Pathogens, certain mutations ...

Study reveals how MRSA infection compromises lymphatic function

January 17, 2018
Infections of the skin or other soft tissues with the hard-to-treat MRSA (methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus) bacteria appear to permanently compromise the lymphatic system, which is crucial to immune system function. ...

0 comments

Please sign in to add a comment. Registration is free, and takes less than a minute. Read more

Click here to reset your password.
Sign in to get notified via email when new comments are made.