Nomogram predicts survival for adults undergoing CAC scoring

June 15, 2017

(HealthDay)—A simple-to-use nomogram can predict five-, 10-, and 15-year survival among adults undergoing coronary artery calcium scoring (CACS), according to a study published online June 14 in JACC: Cardiovascular Imaging.

Bríain Ó Hartaigh, Ph.D., from the Dalio Institute of Cardiovascular Imaging in New York City, and colleagues developed and validated a simple-to-use nomogram for prediction of survival among asymptomatic adults undergoing CACS. The nomogram was developed in 9,715 individuals undergoing CACS and included age, sex, smoking, hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes, family history of disease, and CACS. A prognostic index (PI) was developed, summing the number of risk points corresponding to weighted covariates. The nomogram was validated in a separate cohort of 7,824 adults undergoing CACS.

The researchers found that during median follow-up of 14.6 and 9.4 years, there were 936 and 294 deaths in the derivation and validation sets, respectively. The model effectively predicted the probability of five-, 10-, and 15-year survival. In the derivation and validation sets, the PI displayed high discrimination (C-index, 0.74 and 0.76, respectively). In each dataset, the predicted and actual estimates of survival according to PI quartiles were similar.

"A simple-to-use nomogram effectively predicts five-, 10- and 15-year survival for asymptomatic adults undergoing screening for cardiac risk factors," the authors write. "This nomogram may be considered for use in clinical care."

One author disclosed financial ties to the biopharmaceutical and health care industries.

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