Diseases, Conditions, Syndromes

Urgently needed: New way to combat vaccine-derived poliovirus

A team of researchers from the U.K., Switzerland, the U.S., and the Congo has found that there is an urgent need to combat a vaccine-derived poliovirus. In their paper published in the journal Science, the group describes ...

Diseases, Conditions, Syndromes

Coronavirus modeling shows spread remains dangerously high globally

The reproduction number of the novel coronavirus is still at a dangerously high level globally, requiring greater public health interventions, according to data analyzed by a group including associate professor George Mohler ...

Diseases, Conditions, Syndromes

Calculating the beginnings of the coronavirus epidemic

Analyses of publicly available genome data provide clues to the beginnings of the coronavirus epidemic in China. Researchers from the Department of Biosystems Science and Engineering at ETH Zurich in Basel used a statistical ...

Alzheimer's disease & dementia

Astrophysics and AI may offer key to early dementia diagnosis

Crucial early diagnosis of dementia in general practice could improve thanks to a computer model designed in a collaboration between Brighton and Sussex Medical School (BSMS) and astrophysicists at the University of Sussex.

Neuroscience

Consistent gene changes in Alzheimer's disease across studies

A comparison of mouse Alzheimer's disease models shows changes in the number of cells and the genes they express remain consistent throughout all stages of the disease. The new research published in eNeuro could reveal new ...

Health

Estimating a monetary value of health: Why and how?

Monetary estimates of the value of health, as measured by a quality-adjusted life year (QALY), are difficult to obtain. The estimates provided by this research inform such a threshold for both the UK and Germany. Using a ...

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Statistical model

A statistical model is a set of mathematical equations which describe the behavior of an object of study in terms of random variables and their associated probability distributions. If the model has only one equation it is called a single-equation model, whereas if it has more than one equation, it is known as a multiple-equation model.

In mathematical terms, a statistical model is frequently thought of as a pair (Y,P) where Y is the set of possible observations and P the set of possible probability distributions on Y. It is assumed that there is a distinct element of P which generates the observed data. Statistical inference enables us to make statements about which element(s) of this set are likely to be the true one.

Three notions are sufficient to describe all statistical models.

One of the most basic models is the simple linear regression model which assumes a relationship between two random variables Y and X. For instance, one may want to linearly explain child mortality in a given country by its GDP. This is a statistical model because the relationship need not to be perfect and the model includes a disturbance term which accounts for other effects on child mortality other than GDP.

As a second example, Bayes theorem in its raw form may be intractable, but assuming a general model H allows it to become

which may be easier. Models can also be compared using measures such as Bayes factors or mean square error.

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