Optimal evidence accumulation in decision-making

(Medical Xpress)—At the same settings and light conditions, a camera will take the same picture every time. In contrast, a brain does not make perfect reconstructions of a stimulus. It appears instead to accumulate evidence ...

Psychology & Psychiatry

How picking up your smartphone could reveal your identity

The time a person spends on different smartphone apps is enough to identify them from a larger group in more than one in three cases say researchers, who warn of the implications for security and privacy.

Diseases, Conditions, Syndromes

COVID-19 spread undetected in US, Europe earlier than believed: study

Local COVID-19 transmission was underway in California, New York, Florida and Texas well before the first reported U.S. case in Washington state on Jan. 20, 2020, according to a new study published in Nature, which indicates ...

Diseases, Conditions, Syndromes

COVID-19 : Measuring viral RNA to predict which patients will die

The amount of a SARS-CoV-2 genetic material—viral RNA—in the blood is a reliable indicator in detecting which patients will die of the disease, a team led by Université de Montréal medical professor Dr. Daniel Kaufmann ...


Contact-tracing apps could improve vaccination strategies

Mathematical modeling of disease spread suggests that herd immunity could be achieved with fewer vaccine doses by using Bluetooth-based contact-tracing apps to identify people who have more exposure to others—and targeting ...

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Statistical model

A statistical model is a set of mathematical equations which describe the behavior of an object of study in terms of random variables and their associated probability distributions. If the model has only one equation it is called a single-equation model, whereas if it has more than one equation, it is known as a multiple-equation model.

In mathematical terms, a statistical model is frequently thought of as a pair (Y,P) where Y is the set of possible observations and P the set of possible probability distributions on Y. It is assumed that there is a distinct element of P which generates the observed data. Statistical inference enables us to make statements about which element(s) of this set are likely to be the true one.

Three notions are sufficient to describe all statistical models.

One of the most basic models is the simple linear regression model which assumes a relationship between two random variables Y and X. For instance, one may want to linearly explain child mortality in a given country by its GDP. This is a statistical model because the relationship need not to be perfect and the model includes a disturbance term which accounts for other effects on child mortality other than GDP.

As a second example, Bayes theorem in its raw form may be intractable, but assuming a general model H allows it to become

which may be easier. Models can also be compared using measures such as Bayes factors or mean square error.

This text uses material from Wikipedia, licensed under CC BY-SA