Heatwave deaths will rise steadily by 2080 as globe warms up

July 31, 2018, Monash University
Credit: CC0 Public Domain

If people cannot adapt to future climate temperatures, deaths caused by severe heatwaves will increase dramatically in tropical and subtropical regions, followed closely by Australia, Europe and the United States, a global new Monash-led study shows.

Published today in PLOS Medicine, it is the first global study to predict future heatwave-related deaths and aims to help decision makers in planning adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change.

Researchers developed a model to estimate the number of deaths related to heatwaves in 412 communities across 20 countries for the period of 2031 to 2080.

The study projected excess mortality in relation to heatwaves in the future under different scenarios characterised by levels of , preparedness and adaption strategies and population density across these regions.

Study lead and Monash Associate Professor Yuming Guo said the recent media reports detailing deadly heatwaves around the world highlight the importance of the heatwave study.

"Future heatwaves in particular will be more frequent, more intense and will last much longer," Associate Professor Guo said.

"If we cannot find a way to mitigate the climate change (reduce the heatwave days) and help people adapt to heatwaves, there will be a big increase of heatwave-related deaths in the future, particularly in the poor countries located around the equator."

A key finding of the study shows that under the extreme scenario, there will be a 471 per cent increase in deaths caused by heatwaves in three Australian cities (Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne) in comparison with the period 1971-2010.

"If the Australia government cannot put effort into reducing the impacts of heatwaves, more people will die because of heatwaves in the future," Associate Professor Guo said.

The study comes as many countries around the world have been affected by severe heatwaves, leaving thousands dead and tens of thousands more suffering from heatstroke-related illnesses. The collective toll across India, Greece, Japan and Canada continues to rise as the regions swelter through record temperatures, humidity, and wildfires. Associate Professor Antonio Gasparrini, from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and study co-author, said since the turn of the century, it's thought heatwaves have been responsible for tens of thousands of deaths, including regions of Europe and Russia.

"Worryingly, research shows that is it highly likely that there will be an increase in their frequency and severity under a changing climate, however, evidence about the impacts on mortality at a global scale is limited," Associate Professor Gasparrini said.

"This research, the largest epidemiological study on the projected impacts of heatwaves under global warming, suggests it could dramatically increase heatwave-related mortality, especially in highly-populated tropical and sub-tropical countries. The good news is that if we mitigate greenhouse gas emissions under scenarios that comply with the Paris Agreement, then the projected impact will be much reduced."

Associate Professor Gasparrini said he hoped the study's projections would support decision makes in planning crucial adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change.

In order to prevent mass population death due to increasingly severe heatwaves, the study recommends the following six adaption interventions, particularly significant for developing countries and tropical and subtropical regions:

  • Individual: information provision, adverting
  • Interpersonal: Information sharing; communication; persuasive arguments; counselling; peer education
  • Community: Strengthening community infrastructure; encouraging community engagement; developing vulnerable people group; livelihoods; neighbourhood watch
  • Institutional: Institutional policies; quality standards; formal procedures and regulations; partnership working
  • Environmental: Urban planning and management; built environment; planting trees; public available drink water; house quality
  • Public policy: Improvement of health services; poverty reduction; redistribution of resources; education; -warning system.

Explore further: Summer could be one long heatwave if temperatures rise by just 2C

Related Stories

Summer could be one long heatwave if temperatures rise by just 2C

September 27, 2017
Summer in some parts of the world will become one long heatwave with a global temperature rise of just 2°C above pre-industrial levels, new research has found.

Heatwaves from the Arctic to Japan: A sign of things to come?

July 27, 2018
Intense heatwaves like the one which fuelled Greece's deadly wildfires are set to become increasingly frequent around the world due to climate change, experts warn.

Adhering to Paris Agreement climate goal could significantly decrease heat-related summer deaths

June 27, 2018
As much of the UK and Europe swelters under heatwave conditions, new research led by scientists from the University of Bristol has produced compelling evidence that loss of life through increased heat stress during heatwaves ...

Researchers connect the data to show an accelerating trend for marine heatwaves in our oceans

April 10, 2018
An international study in Nature Communications co-authored by researchers from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CLEX) and the Institute of Marine and Antarctic Studies (IMAS) reveals globally marine heatwaves ...

More heatwaves recorded annually in Spain and other countries

August 10, 2017
Spain has been hit by several record-breaking heatwaves this summer. In fact, Spain is among the regions where more heatwaves are recorded every year, and their effects indicate a rise in the risk of mortality of between ...

Countries must deal with health risks of more frequent heatwaves: UN

July 1, 2015
The UN on Wednesday urged countries to create preparedness systems to counter the health risks of heatwaves, as they become ever more frequent and intense, and dangerous, due to climate change.

Recommended for you

Students more likely to eat school breakfast when given extra time, new study finds

August 18, 2018
Primary school students are more likely to eat a nutritional breakfast when given 10 extra minutes to do so, according to a new study by researchers at Virginia Tech and Georgia Southern University.

Like shark attack and the lottery, unconscious bias influences cancer screening

August 17, 2018
What do shark attack, the lottery and ovarian cancer screening having in common? It turns out our judgments about these things are all influenced by unconscious bias.

Phantom odors: One American in 15 smells odors that aren't there, study finds

August 16, 2018
Imagine the foul smell of an ash tray or burning hair. Now imagine if these kinds of smells were present in your life, but without a source. A new study finds that 1 in 15 Americans (or 6.5 percent) over the age of 40 experiences ...

US drug overdose deaths surge amid fentanyl scourge

August 16, 2018
US drug overdose deaths surged to nearly 72,000 last year, as addicts increasingly turn to extremely powerful synthetic opioid fentanyl as the supply of prescription painkillers has tightened.

Parental life span predicts daughters living to 90 without chronic disease or disability

August 15, 2018
Researchers at the University of California San Diego School of Medicine report that women whose mothers lived to at least age 90 were more likely to also live to 90, free of serious diseases and disabilities.

Eating breakfast burns more carbs during exercise and accelerates metabolism for next meal

August 15, 2018
Eating breakfast before exercise may "prime" the body to burn carbohydrates during exercise and more rapidly digest food after working out, University of Bath researchers have found.

6 comments

Adjust slider to filter visible comments by rank

Display comments: newest first

BobSage
4 / 5 (4) Jul 31, 2018
The premise that the globe is heating up is introduced as a given, one that needs no further discussion. Then it's on to the effects of this heat increase.
691Boat
3.7 / 5 (3) Jul 31, 2018
The premise that the globe is heating up is introduced as a given, one that needs no further discussion. Then it's on to the effects of this heat increase.

For good reason, too.
V4Vendicar
5 / 5 (2) Jul 31, 2018
The premise that the globe is heating up is introduced as a given


The scientific community doesn't debate facts. That is something the scientifically illiterate and intellectually dishonest communities do.
howhot3
5 / 5 (1) Jul 31, 2018
people cannot adapt to future climate temperatures, deaths caused by severe heatwaves will increase dramatically


So true. When 109F becomes your summertime new-normal its time to start thinking what the hell is going on and how can it be stopped? But to the layman who hasn't thought about this; how do you survive extinction?

dirk_bruere
not rated yet Aug 01, 2018
For much of Europe the extra deaths caused by heatwaves will be more than offset by the annual winder deaths no longer being so large
SusejDog
not rated yet Aug 01, 2018
We need a lot more trees and forests; they cool things down. We also need to extract CO2 from the atmosphere and put up a solar shade. The alternative ia death on a massive scale due to overheating.

Please sign in to add a comment. Registration is free, and takes less than a minute. Read more

Click here to reset your password.
Sign in to get notified via email when new comments are made.