Health care spending growth projected to outpace GDP to 2032

Health care spending growth is projected to outpace that of the gross domestic product (GDP) during the coming decade, according to a study published online June 12 in Health Affairs.

Jacqueline A. Fiore, Ph.D., from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services in Baltimore, and colleagues projected growth in national health expenditures from 2023 to 2032 in the United States.

The researchers note that growth in health care spending is projected to outpace that of the GDP to 2032, resulting in a health share of the GDP that reaches 19.7 percent by 2032 versus 17.3 percent in 2022. In 2023, when the COVID-19 public health emergency ended, national health expenditures were projected to have increased 7.5 percent.

This projection reflected increases in health care use, which were associated with an estimated 93.1 percent of the population being insured. In 2024, a significant decline is projected in Medicaid enrollment, as states continue their eligibility redeterminations. Due to the extension of enhanced subsidies for direct-purchase health insurance under the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, as well as a temporary special enrollment period for qualified people losing Medicaid coverage, private insurance enrollment is projected to increase simultaneously.

Personal health care price inflation and growth in health care services and goods use contribute to projected health care spending at a faster rate than the rest of the economy in 2027 to 2032.

"The earlier years of the projection period are expected to reflect divergent trends in spending and enrollment patterns as the health sector transitions away from pandemic-related policy effects," Fiore said in a statement.

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