Rule combo accurately predicts organ failure in pancreatitis

June 8, 2012
Rule combo accurately predicts organ failure in pancreatitis
A series of 12 predictive rules that combines existing scoring systems in patients with acute pancreatitis improves the accuracy of predicting persistent organ failure, according to a study published in the June issue of Gastroenterology.

(HealthDay) -- A series of 12 predictive rules that combines existing scoring systems in patients with acute pancreatitis improves the accuracy of predicting persistent organ failure, according to a study published in the June issue of Gastroenterology.

Rawad Mounzer, M.D., from the University of Pittsburgh, and colleagues compared the accuracy of scoring systems created to predict which patients with pancreatitis will develop persistent organ failure (cardiovascular, pulmonary, and/or lasting 48 hours or more). Data were collected from a training cohort (256 patients) and a validation cohort (397 patients). On admission and 48 hours later, nine clinical scores were calculated. Twelve predictive rules which combined these scores were developed.

The researchers found that, in the training and validation cohorts, existing scoring systems showed modest accuracy (area under the curve [AUC] training cohort, 0.62 to 0.84; AUC validation cohort, 0.57 to 0.74), with the Glasgow score the best classifier at admission. In each set of patients, of creatinine and blood urea nitrogen provided similar levels of discrimination. In both cohorts, use of the 12 predictive rules increased accuracy (AUC training cohort, 0.92; AUC validation cohort, 0.84).

"The existing scoring systems seem to have reached their maximal efficacy in predicting persistent in ," the authors write. "Sophisticated combinations of predictive rules are more accurate but cumbersome to use, and therefore of limited clinical use."

More information: Abstract
Full Text (subscription or payment may be required)

Related Stories

Glucose levels at admission predict death in pneumonia

May 30, 2012

(HealthDay) -- For patients with community-acquired pneumonia without preexisting diabetes, serum glucose levels at admission are predictive of death at 28 and 90 days, according to a study published online May 29 in BMJ.

Recommended for you

Experimental MERS vaccine shows promise in animal studies

July 28, 2015

A two-step regimen of experimental vaccines against Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) prompted immune responses in mice and rhesus macaques, report National Institutes of Health scientists who designed the vaccines. ...

Can social isolation fuel epidemics?

July 21, 2015

Conventional wisdom has it that the more people stay within their own social groups and avoid others, the less likely it is small disease outbreaks turn into full-blown epidemics. But the conventional wisdom is wrong, according ...

Lack of knowledge on animal disease leaves humans at risk

July 20, 2015

Researchers from the University of Sydney have painted the most detailed picture to date of major infectious diseases shared between wildlife and livestock, and found a huge gap in knowledge about diseases which could spread ...

IBD genetically similar in Europeans and non-Europeans

July 20, 2015

The first genetic study of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) to include individuals from diverse populations has shown that the regions of the genome underlying the disease are consistent around the world. This study, conducted ...

0 comments

Please sign in to add a comment. Registration is free, and takes less than a minute. Read more

Click here to reset your password.
Sign in to get notified via email when new comments are made.