Review: weak power in most CRC neoplasia risk prediction models

Review: weak power in most CRC neoplasia risk prediction models
Most colorectal neoplasia risk prediction models have weak discriminatory power, according to a review published in the October issue of Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology.

(HealthDay)—Most colorectal neoplasia risk prediction models have weak discriminatory power, according to a review published in the October issue of Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology.

Gene K. Ma, and Uri Ladabaum, M.D., from the Stanford University School of Medicine in California, conducted a systematic review of studies reporting risk for colorectal neoplasia. They included nine studies that developed a new prediction model and two that tested existing models.

The researchers observed variation among the models with respect to population, predictors, risk tiers, outcomes ( [CRC] or advanced neoplasia) and range of predicted risk. Age, sex, smoking, a measure of obesity, and/or CRC family history were included as predictors in several models. Six models were of good quality, two were fair, and one was poor. The risk difference between the highest and lowest tier was found to vary from two- to four-fold for most models that defined risk tiers. The 0.70 threshold for the C-statistic, indicating good discrimination, was reached in two models.

"Most current risk prediction models have relatively weak discriminatory power and have not demonstrated generalizability," the authors write. "It remains to be determined how risk prediction models could inform CRC screening."

Several authors disclosed financial ties to the pharmaceutical industry.


Explore further

Factors ID'd for CRC risk stratification with positive FIT

More information: Abstract
Full Text

Copyright © 2014 HealthDay. All rights reserved.

Citation: Review: weak power in most CRC neoplasia risk prediction models (2014, October 14) retrieved 20 August 2019 from https://medicalxpress.com/news/2014-10-weak-power-crc-neoplasia.html
This document is subject to copyright. Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of private study or research, no part may be reproduced without the written permission. The content is provided for information purposes only.
 shares

Feedback to editors

User comments

Please sign in to add a comment. Registration is free, and takes less than a minute. Read more