New model forecasts 9 states likely to see peak in COVID-19 deaths by end of April

New model forecasts 9 states likely to see peak in COVID-19 deaths by end of April
Graph shows projected number of COVID-19 deaths per day across the US. Credit: University of Texas at Austin

A model that projects COVID-19 deaths for all 50 U.S. states is showing that it may be another several weeks until deaths peak for most states. The model uses geolocation data from cellphones to determine the impact of social distancing in each state.

National Science Foundation-funded researchers at The University of Texas at Austin have released the , which provides a daily estimate of fatalities from COVID-19 in the coming weeks. The model finds that the number of deaths almost certainly has not yet peaked and is not likely to peak in many states until after May 1, a finding in contrast to that of the model developed by the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, one of the most frequently cited.

The new model has several similarities to the IHME model, but it stands in contrast because it uses data from the U.S. to estimate the impact of recent social distancing measures in each state.

The new model predicts with at least 80% certainty that two states, New York and Louisiana, will be past their peak by April 19. The model also predicts a chance of at least 80% for a peak in April in Washington, D.C., and these seven states: New Jersey, Michigan, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Nevada, and Massachusetts.

For the U.S. as a whole, the IHME model predicts that deaths have already peaked on April 13, whereas the new model predicts that there is only a 17% chance that the peak has passed and an 80% chance that the U.S. will peak by May 7.


Explore further

Follow the latest news on the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak

More information: UT COVID-19 Mortality Forecasting Model: covid-19.tacc.utexas.edu/media … ing_model_latest.pdf
Citation: New model forecasts 9 states likely to see peak in COVID-19 deaths by end of April (2020, April 28) retrieved 3 July 2020 from https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-04-states-peak-covid-deaths-april.html
This document is subject to copyright. Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of private study or research, no part may be reproduced without the written permission. The content is provided for information purposes only.
1 shares

Feedback to editors

User comments