Multidrug-resistant TB set to increase through 2040
Aditya Sharma, M.D., from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, and colleagues calibrated a compartmental model to data from drug resistance surveys and World Health Organization tuberculosis reports to forecast estimates of incident MDR and XDR tuberculosis in India, the Philippines, Russia, and South Africa from 2000 to 2040.
The researchers found that the percentage of MDR tuberculosis among incident cases of tuberculosis was forecast to increase, reaching 12.4, 8.9, 32.5, and 5.7 percent in India, the Philippines, Russia, and South Africa, respectively, in 2040. The percentage of XDR tuberculosis among incident MDR tuberculosis was also predicted to increase, reaching 8.9, 9.0, 9.0, and 8.5 percent in India, the Philippines, Russia, and South Africa, respectively, in 2040. During 2000 to 2040, acquired drug resistance was expected to cause less than 30 percent of incident MDR tuberculosis. In 2000, acquired drug resistance caused 80 percent of incident tuberculosis; by 2040, this is expected to decline to less than 50 percent.
"Additional control efforts beyond improving acquired drug resistance rates are needed to stop the spread of MDR and XDR tuberculosis in countries with a high burden of MDR tuberculosis," the authors write.
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